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Talking Points - Saturday

Some big results on Stradbroke day headlined by Broadsiding’s JJ domination.

JJ Atkins

Broadsiding, if he hadn't already, stamped himself as one of the best two-year-olds in the country and the horse to beat in races like the Caulfield Guineas in the Spring.

He won by 4.3 lengths and eased right down late with no doubt he could've won by 5-6 lengths if he wanted to. That bodes well for his likelihood to improve his rating as a three-year-old.

We have him running to 116 which is the same rating he ran to win the Champagne Stakes in the mud, but he looks almost certain to take the next step with strength and class oozing out of his sectionals.

116 is the second best rating we have in the past ten years of JJ Atkins winners, just behind Rothfire at 117, although it must be noted he ran his over 1400m.

Broadsiding sits one pound ahead of the 115 rated Sacred Elixir and Converge and two pounds ahead of the 114 rated Press Statement and Prince Fawaz, and three pounds ahead of the 113 rated The Autumn Sun.

Three of those five JJ Atkins winners won at Group 1 level as a three-year-old. Converge ran to 123 when beating Anamoe in the Randwick Guineas, Press Statement went 120+ in his Caulfield Guineas win while The Autumn Sun held a peak rating of 126 in his Caulfield Guineas win.

Prince Fawaz did run second in a Rosehill Guineas and peaked at 119 while Sacred Elixir won a Caulfield Guineas Prelude and a Moonee Valley Vase, only managing to match his JJ peak of 115.

Rothfire ran to 122 in his Run To The Rose win before injury struck, but he has remarkably managed to run a peak of 124, in last year's Stradbroke when second with 57kg.

All of this to say, Broadsiding looks as good of an Atkins winner we've seen, and the good ones usually go on with it. No doubt the Caulfield Guineas will be the main aim, while the Cox Plate is absolutely a realistic target.

He'll be easily compared to Anamoe, both Group 1 winners at two, so we may as well make it as well. Anamoe was rated 120 as a two-year-old off his Sires win and although Broadsiding is four pounds off that at the moment, he profiles like a horse who will convert this form into even bigger races with more opportunities to run bigger ratings.

Q22

Quickly touching on Fawkner Park's dominant Q22 win, which naturally sparked comparisons to Without A Fight, who also won the race impressively last year, winning the Cups double in the Spring.

We had Without A Fight rated 121 off his Q22 win last year, oozing sectional class with a powerful win over Nonconformist and Duais. He went on to run 124 and 127 in his Caulfield/Melbourne Cup wins.

Fawkner Park has run a new peak rating on Saturday at 119, up from his 115 in the Doomben Cup when looking a touch unlucky. The margin was big but the race wasn't strong. 110 rated Knight's Choice has run second which makes it difficult to put too big a rating on Fawkner Park, but 119 and perhaps with a bit more upside to come certainly has him in the Cups conversation.

Stradbroke

Stefi Magnetica became the sixth three-year-old to win the Stradbroke since 2000 on Saturday, denying an ever-game Bella Nipotina, who carried top weight.

Stefi has run to 115 on Saturday which is the same rating she ran at weight-for-age in Doomben 10,000 when beaten 1.5 lengths by Bella Nipotina.

Compared to the other five three-year-old Stradbroke winners this century, Stefi Magnetica is on the lower end. The best of those is fellow filly Private Steer at 121, who would go on to win a Doncaster and an All Aged.

The other filly to win the race is La Montagna who ran to 113 in 2006, two pounds below Stefi's win.

Under the handicap conditions, Bella Nipotina clearly comes out with the best rating in the race at 123, which is also a new career peak for her.

She'd previously held a peak of 122 in the Winners Stakes when beating Private Eye and Think About It over 1300m, and her past three ratings now read 121-121-123. From reports, she's likely to run in the Tatts Tiara and any of those past three ratings make her a deep odds-on chance.

 

 

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