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History Says - Sydney Cup

The Sydney Cup, like a lot of staying races in Australia, has been at the mercy of horses who started their career on the other side of the equator.

Most winners up to 2010 were born either in Australia or New Zealand, but since then Niwot (2012) is the only success for Australia and Who Shot Thebarman (2018) the only Kiwi winner.

The expectation is that trend will continue when the 3200-metre Group 1 is run at Randwick on Saturday with nine of the 13 acceptors born in the Northern Hemisphere, including the only three runners at single-figure odds in BetEasy's market.

Young Rascal, who is looking to join 2017 victor Polarisation as an internationally trained winner, was installed favourite after his win in the G3 Manion Cup on March 21.

Nine favourites have won in the past 30 years, the most recent being The Offer, who started $3.30 in 2014.

Like Young Rascal, The Offer won the Manion Cup. He is one of 31 Manion Cup winners to progress to the Sydney Cup, but one of only four to complete the double.

The 2400-metre Manion Cup figures in the lead-up form of nine of the past 30 Sydney Cup winners, including seven of the past 15, but only Gallante (2016) has won it straight out of the Manion Cup.

Last year's winner Shraaoh finished third in the Manion Cup before finishing runner-up in the Chairman's Handicap, which is clearly the most prolific producer of Sydney Cup winners.

Sixteen of the past 30 have rounded out their preparations in the 2600-metre G2, including eight who won both races. The Offer is also the most recent to complete that double.

Raheen House is the horse chasing the Chairman's/Sydney Cup double this year and is one of two representatives from the Kris Lees stable.

His other runner is Mustajeer, who brings G1 weight-for-age form, having finished second to Verry Elleegant in the Tancred Stakes (2400m), a race most recently used by Who Shot Thebarman.

Mustajeer, the 57.5kg topweight, will do what only two horses have done since 1990 if successful.

Mourayan, who won under 58kg in 2013, and Tie The Knot (57kg in 1999) are the only horses to carry at least 57kg to victory in the past 30 years.

Form Focus reveals that 26 have tried, with three others finishing runner-up and a further three thirds.

Gallic, who won under 56kg in 2007, is the only other to carry at least 56kg to victory since 1990.

The Verdict: Given RAHEEN HOUSE won the most prolific producer of Sydney Cup winners and gets in with 54kg, it's hard to look past him each way at $8.

Randwick hosts the Sydney Cup on Saturday, picture ThoroughbredNEWS

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