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Backstretch looks for a decent Derby dividend

The Thomas Farms South Australian Derby will be run this Saturday at Morphettville with the stout Godolphin-trained Alegron the favourite at $2.9 after drawing a lovely low gate with Damian Oliver to ride. 

The unbeaten Detonator Jack, to be ridden by John Allen, is a clear second pick at $4.6 and although he will start from a seemingly awkward outside barrier, his racing style suggests that this will not be too detrimental to his chances as he will likely be given time to find his feet before attempting to chime in at the business end and while these two horses look deserved of their market position, I do believe that there is still value to be found via exotic betting. 
 
I have circled two other opponents that look overs to me, so hopefully they can run boldly and significantly boost the returns for trifectas and the like. 

Firstly, Son Of Emperor.

I am prepared to mark his latest run as a total forgive. Pestered in front and over-racing as a result, he was already cooked upon straightening and although it was less than ideal as a pre-cursor to a Group 1 staying event, a lack of speed on paper in the Derby; with several runners likely to be ridden ‘cold’, should enable Son Of Emperor to slide across the field and take up the running in a relaxed manner. Provided he can find his comfort zone then a marked improvement is on the cards and on pure statistics, the jockey change is no deterrent. 

The other longshot that appeals to me is the kiwi galloper, Texas Tea. 

Now trained by Ciaron Maher and David Eustace, this guy was set a task at his last couple of starts in New Zealand, forced to make exposed, mid-race moves before battling on bravely, then, with the change of stable, came a nine-week break prior to a pleasing, late surge at Mornington. 

He too can take a forward position and there is just something about this horse that tells me he is capable of a lot more than his modest record indicates. Ethan Brown takes the ride here, fresh off his maiden Group 1 victory just 7 days ago in the Robert Sangster Stakes aboard Snapdancer.

S.A Derby selections:
1-6-8-17 (boxed) 

Elsewhere this Saturday, I would love to see Jimmy The Bear roll forward in race 6 at Flemington, the Silver Bowl Series Hcp. Lightly raced and still with upside, this horse is much better suited here over 1400m than when he resumed over 1100m around Caulfield. 

The rich cards at Scone and Eagle Farm have been dealt yet another blow by the weather gods with both venues likely to racing on heavy ground. On that basis, Mazu looks set to continue on his winning way in the ‘Tab Doomben 10,000’, while at the stand-alone Scone meeting, Achira in race 2 looks close to another win after an eye-catching performance last start at Hawkesbury. 

Regards,
Backstretch
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