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Raceday wagering review

The wagering review of Saturday's TAB.com.au fixed odds betting for races at the 100th Cox Plate The Valley and the meeting at Randwick on Saturday, plus Future Market updates:

FUTURES

VICTORIA DERBY
Young Werther $4-$4.50 fav
Cherry Tortoni $13-$6 (after winning Drummond Golf Vase @ Moonee Valley)
Lunar Fox $17-$26
https://bit.ly/2PBXT5C

MELBOURNE CUP
Miami Bound $101-$34 (after winning MV Gold Cup @ Moonee Valley)
***bet of $2,000 e/w @ $51/$13.50 AFTER winning the MV Cup
https://bit.ly/2YpQtHE

COOLMORE STUD STAKES
Portland Sky inserted @ $26 (after winning Red Anchor Stakes @ Moonee Valley)

MACKINNON STAKES
Homesman inserted at $11 (after winning Crystal Mile @ Moonee Valley)
Armory $7-$4f
Arcadia Queen stays $4.50
Mugatoo $15-$13
Aspetar $11-$21
Buckhurst $15-$21

GOLDEN SLIPPER
Sneaky Five inserted at $26 (after winning r2 @ Moonee Valley)

2021 COX PLATE MARKET (PRE NOMS)
$11         Sir Dragonet
$13         Armory
                Russian Camelot
$15         Arcadia Queen
$26         Alligator Blood
                Fierce Impact
                Funstar
                Montefilia
                Mugatoo
                Odeum
                Ole Kirk
                Probabeel
$26+      Others


RANDWICK

RACE ONE
Punters pulled off a great betting move in the opening race of the day - the Forum Group Kirkham Plate (1000 metres).
Tiger Of Malay ($26-$9.50), tipped up by SKY Racing's Ron Dufficy, proved best over the concluding stages to land a confident late betting move. The son of Extreme Choice really firmed up in the final 20 minutes.
Mura Mura ($3.20-$4.40) was the best tried all week and ran right up to the support while the big push for Jumbo Goal ($6.50-$5.50) all week, which began on Wednesday when $21 was available, was off the mark.
BETS: Jumbo Goal $1,000 @ $6
BETS: Socialist $1,500 @ $9.50

RACE TWO
Proven Class rattled home under Winona Costin to take out a very competitive TAB Highway Handicap (1800 metres).
Going around as a $14 chance, the James Ponsonby-trained galloper didn't have a great deal of support after opening at $11 in the morning.
Rent A Rock, which had been favourite in the morning at $4.20, blew right out to $7 at the start of the race but battled on after doing plenty of work.
The big push was for Cosmic Haze ($6-$4.40) along with Crackerjack Kenny ($8-$6.50-$7). Prince Of Aragon ($7) and Evas Deel ($11-$9.50-$10) had plenty of admirers after both opened at much bigger prices on Wednesday.
BETS: Crackerjack Kenny $1,500 @ $6.50
BETS: Cosmic Haze $1,500 @ $4.80, $5,000 @ $4.40, $2,000 @ $4.40
BETS: Rent A Rock $2,400 @ $7
BETS: Evas Deel $1,000 @ $9.50
BETS: Prince Of Aragon $1,000 @ $7

RACE THREE
One of the best tried runners all day was Destination for the running of the AMD Brian Crowley Stakes (1200 metres).
Although the race itself was a top betting affair with strong money for every single runner in the event, it was Destination ($3-$2.50-$2.90) which carried the majority of the hold. In fact, close to half the investment was on the Godolphin runner.
The Bopper ($3.30-$4.20) had admirers but drifted on the day while On The Lead ($4.40-$4) was the second best tried outside the fav.
BETS: The Bopper $3,000 @ $4.20, $1,000 @ $4.20, $1,035 @ $3.90, $1,000 @ $3.90, $1,300 @ $3.70
BETS: Destination $2,500 @ $3.10, $1,500 @ $3, $5,500 @ $2.90, $4,500 @ $2.90, $4,000 @ $2.90, $3,000 @ $2.90 TWICE, $2,000 @ $2.90, $3,000 @ $2.70

RACE FOUR
Cuba landed some big bets after scoring an upset in the Robrick Lodge Filante Handicap (1400 metres).
While Criaderas was heavily supported as an odds-on favourite, Cuba ($8-$12-$11) attracted some decent bets including one which netted one TAB customer over $110,000 collect!
Ranier ($9.50-$11-$9) had admirers at the eachway quote as did Royal Celebration ($6) but the story of the day was Criaderas ($1.95-$1.55-$1.75) which went around with more than half the market on his back.
BETS: Cuba $10,000 e/w @ $11/$2.30
BETS: Criaderas $4,900 @ $2.15, $2,100 @ $1.95, $10,429 @ $1.75, $3,000 @ $1.75, $6,000 @ $1.70, $3,500 @ $1.60, $8,800 @ $1.55

RACE FIVE
Knights Order more than halved its quote and got the job done for her backers by leading throughout in the Clubs NSW City Tattersalls Club Cup (2400 metres).
The Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott-trained galloper opened the day as a $21 chance after as much as $41 was available on Wednesday.
Today, the son of So You Think was backed into $8 off consistent support all afternoon and with Winona Costin taking the gelding straight to the front, the pair were never headed, giving the hoop a rare City double.
Girl Tuesday ($4.80-$3.90-$4.60) was easily the most popular runner but got the drifts late and after blowing the start, was out of play.
Of the rest, Attention Run ($9.50-$5.50) was a notable firm.
BETS: Girl Tuesday $2,000 @ $4.60, $4,500 @ $4.40
BETS: Djukon $5,000 e/w @ $6.50/$2.20, $2,500 e/w @ $6.50/$2.20
BETS: Attention Run $11,000 @ $5
BETS: Knights Order $2,000 e/w @ $8/$2.60

RACE SIX
Favourite backers were on good terms with themselves after the running of the Bar 83 Bondi Stakes (1600 metres).
While there were decent moves at varying stages throughout the day for the likes of Prime Star ($3.80), Acrophobic ($5-$4.40-$6) and Elizabeel ($6-$4.60) it was Peltzer which was carrying the really big money.
The Gerald Ryan & Sterling Alexiou-trained galloper was twice as popular as anything else in the race and he was responsible for a tick under half the money.
Peltzer ($2.40-$3.10-$2.80) did get out in the betting early in the day but came in late thanks to some serious investments.
BETS: Peltzer $5,688 @ $3.10, $4,000 @ $3.10, $2,100 @ $3, $5,000 @ $2.90, $3,500 @ $2.90, $7,500 @ $2.80, $2,000 @ $2.80
BETS: Acrophobic $2,000 @ $4.80, $1,000 @ $4.40
BETS: Prime Star $2,000 @ $3.80, $1,072 @ $3.80, $6,000 @ $3.70, $3,000 @ $3.60
BETS: Elizabeel $2,000 @ $5.50, $5,040 @ $4.80, $1,750 @ $4.80

RACE SEVEN
Positive Peace was largely ignored until very late for the running of the Daily Press The Nivison (1200 metres).
Opening the day as an $11 chance, Positive Peace hit $21 at one stage before a late rally saw it come into $16 at the jump.
Wandabaa ($5) went around as the most popular runner and slight favourite in front of the big mover in Blazing Miss ($9-$5.50) and Athiri ($4.80-$6-$5.50).
BETS: Positive Peace $500 @ $16
BETS: Jen Rules $2,000 e/w @ $5.50/$2

RACE EIGHT
Hilo did the right thing by favourite backers in the Southern Cross Handicap (1200 metres).
Going around as one of the most popular horses all day, Hilo ($2.80-$2.90) led throughout for Rachel King and James Cummings which was to the delight of those who loaded up on the gelding.
The son of Lohnro went around with 41 percent of the total investment while he also featured a number of successful multis throughout the afternoon.
Inanup ($7.50) had support all week when as much as $18 was on offer while So Taken ($10) had eachway support along with Edison ($7.50), which came in from double figures, and Mount Horeb ($34-$19-$13).
BETS: Hilo $2,000 @ $2.80, $3,500 @ $2.70, $2,000 @ $2.70, $1,000 x $3,000 e/w @ $2.70/$1.40
BETS: Bound To Win $3,500 @ $10

RACE NINE
Icebath finally repaid the faithful with a strong win in the final event on the program – the Sharp EIT Handicap (1600 metres).
The Brad Widdup-trained galloper went around as one of the best tried horses of the afternoon. Starting a $2.60 favourite, it held more than three times the amount of money than anything else with the best supported outside of it being Betcha Flying ($7).
Of the rest, Vegas Jewel ($6) had backing at the eachway quote as did Navy Cross ($10).
Bets: Icebath $2,500 e/w @ $3.30/$1.60, $1,305 @ $3.30, $1,000 @ $3.30, $1,750 @ $3.20, $1,100 @ $3.20 $10,000 @ $2.60, $2,500 @ $2.60, $2,000 @ $2.60, $3,000 @ $2.50
BETS: Vegas Jewel $1,000 @ $5.50
BETS: Fortress Command $2,000 @ $8
BETS: Betcha Flying $1,000 @ $6.50 MULTIPLE TIMES
BETS: Navy Cross $5,000 @ $10

MOONEE VALLEY

RACE ONE
It was a painless watch for favourite backers in the Strathmore Community Bendigo Bank Handicap (955 metres).
Despite going around as a $1.28 favourite, Ancestry was heavily backed and was a popular anchor for multi players. Leading from start to finish for Michael Poy, Ancestry went around with more than half the total investment.
Jungle Edge ($3.80-$6.50) had many admirers as the rain arrived and ran a cracking race for second but couldn't match motors with the winner after sitting outside it for the entire race.
BETS: Ancestry $10,000 @ $1.28 TWICE, $5,000 @ $1.28

RACE TWO
One of the more popular runners all week was Sneaky Five in the Inglis Banner (1000 metres).
TAB went up $5 early in the week about the son of Fastnet Rock and it was one of the first horses backed on Wednesday.
That support continued today as it went around a $5.50 second favourite behind Son Of Mercury ($5), which held slightly more than it.
Tatsuro ($10-$10-$12) was one of the better pushes in the market on the day while Predetermined ($7) had plenty of admirers as did Tempest Charm ($8.50).
BETS: Sneaky Five $2,600 x $4,000 e/w @ $5.50/$2.20
BETS: Tempest Charm $1,000 @ $8.50
BETS: Son Of Mercury $1,000 @ $5

RACE THREE
Portland Sky defied the betting drift to lead throughout in the PFD Food Services Red Anchor Stakes (1200 metres).
The Matt Laurie runner was favourite for most of the week after opening $2.70, however, he blew out to $4.60 to be second pick in the market. The drift was largely due to the heavy support for Bella Nipotina, which went $4.60-$3.70.
Of the others, Valaquenta had admirers at the $5.50.
BETS: Bella Nipotina $4,000 @ $3.70, $2,000 @ $3.70
BETS: Free To Move $1,000 @ $8.50 TWICE
BETS: Valaquenta $2,000 @ $5.50

RACE FOUR
The big move for Ecumencial came unstuck thanks to a great frontrunning ride by Craig Williams on Yes Baby Yes.
Ecumenical ($2.50-$2.10) was one of the best backed runners all day, going around with nearly half the total investment in this race and was holding more than double what the second pick in the market, Thermosphere ($3.60) did.
Yes Baby Yes ($9-$12) had admirers at the eachway odds and was actually the fourth most popular horse in the race behind Incredulous Dream ($7.50).
BETS: Ecumenical $2,300 @ $2.50, $1,100 @ $2.50, $4,000 @ $2.30, $5,000 @ $2.10, $2,000 @ $2.10 MULTIPLE TIMES
BETS: Thermosphere $5,000 @ $3.60

RACE FIVE
All the big money late was for Sovereign Award in the Powerflo Solutions Stakes (1600 metres).
It was a bad result for TAB as the Danny O'brien-trained galloper was nearly three times as popular as Paradee ($3.60), which had strong backing in the morning but that money tended to dry up late as it swung towards the winner.
Bonvinci ($5.50) carried big bets as did Greysful Glamour ($5.50-$8) while I Am Eloquent ($10) had specking at the eachway quote.
BETS: Sovereign Award $5,000 @ $3, $2,500 @ $3, $2,000 @ $3, $5,000 @ $2.90, $4,000 @ $2.90
BETS: Paradee $5,000 @ $3.90, $5,000 @ $3.80, $2,500 @ $3.80, $2,000 @ $3.50, $2,500 @ $3.40

RACE SIX
After the withdrawal of hot favourite Young Werther, punters only wanted to be on one horse - Cherry Tortoni in the Drummond Golf Vase (2040 metres).
Cherry Tortoni ($2.70) was nearly twice as popular as Khoekhoe ($4.40) in the race and attracted big bets in the final hour of betting.
The pair held the lion's share of investments with Captain Corelli ($4.80) and Johnny Get Angry ($15) having their share of admirers too.
BETS: Cherry Tortoni $2,000 @ $2.80, $4,300 @ $2.70
BETS: Johnny Get Angry $2,000 x $1,500 e/w @ $14/$3.10

RACE SEVEN
Homesman was one of the more popular runners despite getting out late in the Schweppes Crystal Mile (1600 metres).
The Anthony and Sam Freedman-trained runner got into as low as $3.50 before starting a $3.90, putting him on the third line of betting. He lost favouritism to Kings Will Dream ($3.90-$3.20) while the late push for Age Of Chivalry ($3.90-$3.40) saw him start on the third line of betting.
BETS: Age Of Chivalry $4,000 @ $4.20, $5,500 @ $3.40

RACE EIGHT
There wasn't a great deal of confident around for Miami Bound in the McCafe Moonee Valley Gold Cup (2500 metres).
The Oaks winner from last season went $19-$23 on the day and was one of the least favoured runners in the race. In fact, only Etah James, Levendi and Carif held less.
Shared Ambition ($4.20) was the one holding the most and was nearly twice as popular as Sound ($5.50-$6) while Polly Grey ($9.50-$8) was well tried after opening up at $15 on Wednesday.
Of the rest, Oceanex ($13-$9.50-$8-$10) ran right up to the support for her and wound up third behind Miami Bound and Shared Ambition.
Trap For Fools ($21-$7.50) slashed its opening price from the morning but dropped after leading them up.
BETS: Polly Grey $6,000 x $1,000 e/w @ $8/$2.70, $3,000 x $2,000 e/w @ $7/$2.50
BETS: Sound $2,000 @ $6

COX PLATE
The win of Sir Dragonet landed a decent betting move in the Cox Plate (2040 metres).
Opening the day at $9.50, Sir Dragonet reached $13 at one stage of the afternoon before a constant stream of eachway bets saw him start an $8 chance.
In terms of popularity, he was the sixth best tried in the race behind Russian Camelot, Arcadia Queen, Kolding, Probabeel and Armory.
Russian Camelot ($4-$3.50) was carrying huge money in the Group One and held several hundred thousand dollars more than Arcadia Queen ($6.50-$8-$7) which was mainly a drifter on the day.
Armory ($7.50-$9-$8) had plenty of support as did Probabeel ($9.50) while Mugatoo was the subject of a huge bet late.
BETS: Sir Dragonet $1,500 e/w @ $13/$4, $2,000 e/w @ $11/$3.50, $1,000 @ $11
BETS: Arcadia Queen $3,000 @ $7, $2,000 @ $7 TWICE
BETS: Russian Camelot $3,000 @ $4 TWICE, $2,000 @ $4 MULTIPLE TIMES, $2,000 @ $3.60 TWICE, $1,800 @ $3.50, $8,000 @ $3.30, $4,550 @ $3.40
BETS: Armory $2,000 e/w @ $8.50/$2.87, $2,000 @ $7.50, $1,000 @ $7.50
BETS: Probabeel $1,000 @ $8
BETS: Kolding $1,000 @ $15
BETS: Fierce Impact $1,000 @ $31
BETS: Nettoyer $2,000 @ $101, $2,000 @ $71
BETS: Mugatoo $6,4500 X $1,010 e/w @ $21/$6

RACE 10
Punters were given a scare in the final event on the program - the Crockett Stakes (1200 metres) - but were given the perfect way to end the card.
La Mexicana was the most popular horse on the day at The Valley outside of Russian Camelot and landed some huge investments and multis as a result of Jamie Kah getting it over the line for her fourth win of the afternoon.
La Mexicana ($2.50) was four times as popular as the second pick in the market (Maha, $3.80) and was heavily leveraged through multis.
BETS: La Mexicana $2,000 @ $3.30, $1,500 @ $2.80, $25,500 @ $2.50



































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